Keep Our Teachers · Montgomery Elementary
The Evidence on Class Size

Why eliminating a second‑grade position crosses a line the research has already drawn.

A forty-year record of randomized trials, long-run follow-ups, and replicated studies says the same thing: what happens in a K–3 classroom of 15–19 is meaningfully different from what happens in a classroom of 25 — and the difference shows up in reading scores, in graduation rates, and in adult earnings.

Today
22
Next Year
25
This is not a nudge. It places 2nd grade at the top of Project STAR's "regular-class" range (22–25) — the group that finished 3rd grade seven months of learning behind their small-class peers — and matches the loosest figure in Ohio's K–4 staffing rule, with no district-wide averaging to soften it for the kids in the room.

A district eliminating a second-grade position is rarely framed as an educational decision. It is framed as a budget decision — one section folded into the others, a line item balanced. But the research community has been studying exactly this question, in exactly this grade band, for forty years. And the answer it has returned — through the single largest randomized trial ever conducted on American class size, through replications in Wisconsin, Israel, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, and through follow-up studies that tracked children into adulthood — is strikingly consistent.

Early-grade class size matters. It matters more than most education-policy levers available to a local district. And it matters most for the students a board is most responsible for protecting.

The headline numbers from Project STAR

Tennessee's STAR experiment, conducted from 1985 to 1989, randomly assigned ~11,600 K–3 students to one of three conditions: small classes (target 13–17), regular classes (target 22–25), or regular classes with a full-time teacher's aide — and kept them in those assignments through third grade. It is, to this day, the benchmark every serious class-size conversation returns to.

7.1 mo
additional learning for small-class students by the end of 3rd grade, relative to regular-class peers.
Finn & Achilles · 1999
+4 pctl
test percentile gain in the first year of small-class assignment, with roughly +1 percentile per year of additional small-class exposure.
Krueger · QJE · 1999
0.150.35
standardized effect size on reading and math, every grade K–3, every year of the experiment.
Word et al. · TN DOE

STAR's results have been reanalyzed by Princeton economist Alan Krueger, replicated by Nye and colleagues across multiple journals, and treated as the reference point in every major meta-analysis of the field. The American Federation of Teachers, the National Education Association, and Florida's constitutional class-size amendment all cite it. It is not a fringe study.

Small classes appear to benefit all kinds of students, but the benefits are about twice as large for Black students and for students on free lunch. — synthesizing Krueger (1999), Finn & Achilles (1990), Nye et al. (2004)

Effects that follow children into adulthood

The most persuasive research for a board audience is not the test-score research. It's what Harvard economist Raj Chetty and colleagues found when they linked the original STAR participants to IRS tax records twenty-five years later.

Chetty et al. · QJE 2011
Kindergarten classroom → adult outcomes
Small-class assignment produced a 1.8 percentage-point increase in college enrollment at age 20, and durable gains in home ownership, 401(k) savings, and neighborhood quality at age 27.
Dynarski, Hyman & Schanzenbach · JPAM 2013
College attendance by subgroup
+2.7 pts overall. About +5–6 pts for Black students. +4.4 pts for free-lunch students. Up to ~+7 pts for students in the poorest third of schools.
Krueger & Whitmore · Econ Journal 2001
Closing the testing gap
Small classes narrowed the Black–white gap in college-entrance-exam taking by 54% — one of the largest measured effects of any K–12 intervention on racial achievement gaps.
Finn, Gerber & Boyd-Zaharias · JEP 2005
High school graduation
Low-income students with four years in small K–3 classes graduated at roughly 88%, versus about 70% for comparable peers without the exposure — an 18-point difference.

The pattern is striking: test-score advantages from small early-grade classes partially fade by middle school, but non-cognitive effects — effort, persistence, engagement with school — persist. These are what drive the adult outcomes. Chetty's work is the strongest evidence in the field that what happens in a second-grade classroom does not stay in a second-grade classroom.

⸺ The Equity Dimension

When class size grows, the cost is not borne equally.

Every rigorous study that disaggregates the results finds the same thing: larger classes fall hardest on the students with the least margin for error. Peter Blatchford's UK observational research documented the mechanism directly — lower-attaining pupils spent more than twice as much time off-task in classes of about 30 as in classes of about 15, while the difference for higher achievers was far smaller. Adult attention is a finite resource, and its dilution matters most for children whose home resources are thinnest.

The size of test-score effects for Black students and free-lunch students, relative to the overall average.
11 → 26%
Lesson time spent off-task by lower-attaining pupils — classes of ~15 vs. ~30 (Blatchford, UK).
~+7 pts
Approximate increase in college attendance for students in the poorest tail of schools (Dynarski et al., JPAM 2013).

Why this specific grade is the wrong one to cut

Second grade sits at the hinge of elementary literacy. It is the year when Matthew effects — the compounding divergence between strong and struggling readers — begin to lock in. Hernandez's longitudinal analysis for the Annie E. Casey Foundation (Double Jeopardy, 2011) found that students not reading proficiently by the end of third grade fail to graduate from high school on time at four times the rate of proficient readers. Among children who spent at least one year in poverty and were not reading proficiently by 3rd grade, 26% failed to graduate on time — about three times the rate of proficient readers from never-poor families.

Second grade is also the year when small-group reading instruction becomes structurally critical. The evidence-based delivery mode — used by teacher-preparation programs nationwide — calls for teachers meeting with three to five flexible reading groups per week, with struggling readers seen more often and in smaller groups. The arithmetic is unforgiving:

A 60-minute reading block with three teacher-led rotations yields 20 minutes per group in a class of 20. In a class of 25, the same three rotations push group size to 8–9 students — the upper edge of what counts as "small group" — and going to four rotations to keep groups smaller cuts direct instruction to 15 minutes per group.
Running records, DIBELS, and Acadience benchmarks — the formative assessments that identify struggling readers — take 5–15 minutes per child, three times a year. Every additional student is real instructional time lost across the whole class.
Within the STAR data itself, effects were largest when students had three or more consecutive years in small classes. The K–2 continuity this district is about to interrupt is precisely the dosage pattern the research identifies as most protective.

The threshold the research has actually identified

The honest version of this argument is not that smaller is always better. Research identifies thresholds — nonlinear ranges where benefits emerge or erode. Glass and Smith's 1979 meta-analysis, which has held up for 45 years of subsequent work, established the curve: moving from 40 to 30 does essentially nothing, moving from 40 to 20 produces only about 0.05 SD of learning, and gains accelerate sharply below 20 students — reaching roughly 0.27 SD at a class of 10.

What this means for a class going from 22 to 25:

The current average (22) sits at the upper edge of the range where teachers can still run effective small-group reading instruction and identify struggling readers early.
The new size (25) sits at the top of Project STAR's regular-class band (22–25) — the comparison group that ended 3rd grade roughly seven months of learning behind small-class peers. Filges et al.'s (2018) meta-analysis of 127 studies from 41 countries reports a small positive effect on reading (~0.11 SD); the same review finds no significant effect on math, and the authors characterize the overall effect as small. The widely-cited per-student linearity argument (Angrist & Pischke 2009; Schanzenbach 2007) implies a loss of roughly 0.05–0.10 SD of early-grade learning per 5-student increase.
A 25-student 2nd grade class is an outlier against national averages (NCES: 19.1 students), AFT guidance (15–19), Florida's constitutional cap (18), and Texas's statutory cap (22 in K–4). It is flatly illegal in eight states and equal to the cap in three more.

For the primary-source review of how all 50 states govern K–3 class size — the statutes, constitutions, and administrative codes behind the numbers above — see How 2nd-grade class size is governed in all 50 states. A 25-student 2nd grade is flatly illegal in eight states and equal to the statutory cap in three more.

When the administration cites the skeptics

Expect the board or administration to cite Eric Hanushek, Caroline Hoxby, or Matthew Chingos. Their work is real, peer-reviewed, and worth acknowledging. Here's how to engage it honestly.

What the skeptics actually argue

Hanushek's 1986 JEL review of 277 econometric estimates drawn from 59 studies found inconsistent class-size effects and argued teacher quality dominates (his 1997 update extended the dataset to 377 estimates from 90 studies, with the same headline conclusion). Hoxby's Connecticut study (2000) found no class-size effects on 4th and 6th grade test scores. Chingos found Florida's universal class-size amendment produced no detectable gains despite costing roughly $20 billion over eight years, with continuing costs of $4–5 billion annually thereafter (Chingos, Economics of Education Review, 2012; cost figures from Chingos's companion Brookings analyses).

These critiques apply most forcefully to rushed, statewide mandates — California's 1996 reduction, which forced the hiring of roughly 25,000 new K–3 teachers within the first three years (about 18,400 in year one alone) and pushed the share of uncredentialed K–3 teachers from under 2% to 14%; Florida's universal cap that diluted teacher quality during rapid expansion. None of that describes a district decision to cut a single existing second-grade position.
Krueger's 2003 Economic Journal reanalysis also showed Hanushek's conclusions depend on an unusual weighting method. Re-weighted by study rather than by coefficient, the same literature yields significant positive effects.

The cost math the board will do anyway

The marginal cost of keeping one second-grade teacher — verified against Sycamore's own 2025–26 Certified Salary Schedule and the forecast's 37.8% benefits-to-wages ratio — runs roughly $90,000–$120,000 in total compensation. Cutting the position takes Montgomery from five 2nd-grade sections to four. With next year's projected cohort of ~100 second graders, that's the difference between five classrooms of 20 and four classrooms of 25 — every child in 2nd grade gets five more classmates as a direct result of the cut. The per-student "savings" works out to just $900–$1,200 annually. And within next year's K–4 sequence at Montgomery, every other grade sits between 17.8 and 21.2 students; only 2nd grade jumps to 25 — a structural spike at exactly the grade where the research is most conclusive.

Against that figure: Krueger's (2003, Economic Journal) estimated ~5–7% internal rate of return on STAR-scale reductions; Chetty et al.'s (2011, QJE) finding that assignment to an experienced kindergarten teacher (>10 years) is associated with roughly $1,100 higher earnings at age 27 — about 7% of mean income — and that a one-standard-deviation increase in classroom quality is associated with roughly 9.6% higher adult earnings (~$1,520/year); Fredriksson's Swedish data showing long-run wage gains large enough to pass a cost-benefit test. Even if the local effect is half the magnitude documented in STAR, the present value of lifetime-earnings impacts exceeds per-student costs by a wide margin — particularly for the subgroups where effects are concentrated.

And the math excludes a second-order cost. The RAND State of the American Teacher 2024 survey found teachers report burnout at roughly twice the rate of comparable professionals. The Learning Policy Institute (Carver-Thomas & Darling-Hammond, 2017) cites annual US teacher-turnover costs at more than $8 billion (originally estimated by NCTAF, 2007). Class size is a documented driver of retention. A cut that raises class sizes this year makes positions harder to fill next year.

Where the money has actually gone

Every figure below is pulled directly from Sycamore Community Schools' own October 2025 Five-Year Forecast, filed with the Ohio Department of Education and Workforce. Nothing here is projection or opinion — these are the numbers the district has already recorded.

−14.31
certified (teaching) FTE already cut between 2024–25 and 2025–26 — before this year's 2nd-grade teacher cut. Over the same span, administrative FTE went up by one (36 → 37).
Forecast · slide 11
$8.29M
in permanent General Fund transfers to capital projects since 2022 — roughly 75 teacher-years of classroom staffing. A further $7.67M in advances is assumed to be repaid FY26–28, for a combined General Fund impact of $15.96M.
Forecast · slide 14
+79%
three-year growth in Professional & Technical Services — roughly $2.14M, nearly 20 teaching positions' worth of total compensation.
Forecast · slide 8

What one teacher actually costs

Derived from Sycamore's own 2025–26 Certified Salary Schedule and the forecast's 37.8% benefits-to-wages ratio, total compensation for one elementary teaching position runs roughly $90,000–$120,000. Against the district's own numbers, that figure represents:

0.1% of the FY26 $104 million operating budget.
~80% of one year's Athletic Fund transfer ($135,000/year, slide 5) — redirecting a single year of that transfer would more than cover one full teaching position.
~2.7% of one year's Permanent Improvement transfer ($4.1 million/year, slide 5).
10–14% of the $866,000/year that frees up in FY27 when three existing General Fund debts (Energy Conservation, Blue Ash Elementary, District Office) mature in December 2025 (slides 2, 5).
⸺ The assumption that doubles the problem

In FY27, instructional coaches go away.

The forecast's own expenditure assumption reads, verbatim: "8% Increase in Purchased Services (2026), −4.3% (2027 — Instructional Coaches go away), 3.5% (2028–2030)" (slide 5).

Instructional coaches are the full-time positions whose job is to help classroom teachers model lessons, plan curriculum, and implement effective K–3 literacy instruction. Eliminating them in the same two-year window as the 2nd-grade teacher shrinks support from both ends — precisely in the grade band where the research says class size matters most.

The cash-balance concern, fairly stated

The forecast projects the General Fund cash balance sliding below the board's 25% policy floor in FY28 (to 19%) and turning negative by FY30 (−10%). That pressure is real. One piece of context the board may not foreground: the October 2025 forecast pushes the predicted negative-balance year from FY29 (May 2025 forecast) to FY30 (slide 19, verbatim). The trajectory is improving, not worsening. The forecast's own assumptions show where the pressure that remains is coming from — and it isn't salaries:

Wages: +3% base + 2% step — predictable and modest (slide 5).
Insurance: +10% every year of the forecast (slide 5).
Purchased Services: up 32.5% over three years, driven by a 79% rise in Professional & Technical Services (slide 8).
Permanent Improvement + Athletic transfers: $4.2 million every year, all five forecast years (slide 5).
Capital transfers and advances since 2022: $15.96 million, including two projects (natatorium, baseball/softball Phase 1) added after the 2019 bond passed. The $127.5M bond's ballot language funded "new construction, improvements, renovations, and additions to school facilities" — athletics was not in the language voters approved (slide 14; 2019 bond prospectus).

A November 2026 levy is already on the calendar (slide 19), with filing deadlines in July and August. Three General Fund debts mature in December 2025, freeing $866,000/year starting in FY27.

None of these numbers answer the question: why balance on a 2nd-grade teaching position — the single grade band where the research on class-size effects is most conclusive — rather than on any of the discretionary expenditure lines above?

Three questions to leave with the board

Public comment is capped at three minutes. Pick one — don't try all three.

Question 01 · Priorities
The $15.96 million question
"Since 2022, the General Fund has absorbed $15.96 million in transfers and advances for capital projects — at least two of which, the natatorium and the baseball/softball complex, were added after the 2019 bond passed. Over the same period, Professional & Technical Services grew 79%, and the district has already cut 14.31 certified FTE between last school year and this one. Can the board explain how eliminating a 2nd-grade teaching position — at the grade where the research on class size is most conclusive — is the right place to close this year's budget gap?"
Question 02 · Instructional coaches
Two layers of support, shrinking at once
"Your own FY27 expenditure assumption is that Purchased Services drops 4.3% because instructional coaches go away. Coaches are there to help classroom teachers implement effective instruction. Cutting a 2nd-grade teaching position and the coaching capacity in the same two-year window removes support on both ends. Specifically: how does the board plan to maintain K–3 literacy outcomes when both layers of support shrink at the same time?"
Question 03 · Levy timing
Nine months before the ask
"A November 2026 levy is already on the calendar, with filing deadlines this July and August. Three General Fund debts mature in December 2025, freeing $866,000 per year starting in FY27. The marginal cost of keeping one 2nd-grade teacher is about $90,000 to $120,000 in total compensation. Why is that teaching position being eliminated nine months before the community is asked to approve new operating revenue, and before the debt-maturity savings show up in a full fiscal year?"

How to make the case on April 29

The meeting runs 6:00–8:00 PM at the Kenwood Learning Commons. Four things any parent can do — attend and speak, email the board, bring a printed brief, or forward this page to a neighbor. Each is pre-written below.

01 · Public Comment
A 90-second script
Most boards cap public comment around two to three minutes. This version runs about 90 seconds at a normal speaking pace. Read it as-is or rework it in your own voice.
My name is [your name] and I'm a parent of a [grade] grader at Montgomery Elementary. I'm asking the board to use its authority to keep five 2nd-grade sections at Montgomery next year — and to make smaller K–3 class sizes a district priority. The research community has been studying this exact question — K–3 class size — for forty years. Tennessee's Project STAR, the only large randomized trial ever conducted on American class size, followed ~11,600 K–3 students and found students in classes of around fifteen were seven months of learning ahead by the end of third grade, compared to classes of twenty-two. Economists at Harvard, Berkeley, and Northwestern later linked those same students to tax records into their mid-to-late twenties. They found higher college attendance, home ownership, and retirement savings. Across the class-size literature — Krueger 1999, Dynarski 2013 — these effects are consistently about twice as large for Black students and students on free lunch. Montgomery is going from five 2nd-grade sections to four — one classroom's worth of children redistributed across every remaining room, pushing every section to 25 students. That is the loosest figure in Ohio's K–4 staffing rule — a number the state writes as a district-wide average, applied here to a single classroom. The annual savings per affected student is about $1,000. The estimated lifetime earnings impact, based on Krueger's 5–7% internal rate of return on STAR-scale reductions, is many multiples of that. I'm asking the board to keep this position. Thank you.
02 · Email the Board
A ready-to-send letter
Written to stand on its own if you can't attend. Add one line about your own child's experience in the bracketed paragraph — specificity carries more weight than volume.
Subject: Please keep five 2nd-grade sections at Montgomery Elementary Dear members of the Board of Education, I'm writing as a parent of a Montgomery Elementary student to ask the board to use its authority to keep five 2nd-grade sections at Montgomery next year. With a teacher resigning and no plan to backfill, the projected 2nd-grade class size jumps to 25 students — the loosest figure in Ohio's K–4 staffing rule, a number the state writes as a district-wide average and we are applying to a single classroom. [One or two sentences about your child — their teacher, their class this year, what has worked.] The research on K–3 class size is unusually clear. Tennessee's Project STAR — a randomized trial of ~11,600 children followed through third grade — found that small-class K–3 students were seven months of learning ahead by the end of third grade. Chetty et al.'s long-run follow-up (Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011) linked those same children to tax records into their late twenties and found a 1.8 percentage-point increase in college attendance. Across the class-size literature (Krueger 1999, Dynarski 2013), these effects are consistently about twice as large for Black and low-income students. Moving 2nd-grade classes from an average of 22 students this year to 25 next year places them at the top of Project STAR's regular-class band (22–25), the group that finished 3rd grade roughly seven months of learning behind their small-class peers. Krueger's 5–7% estimated internal rate of return on STAR-scale reductions implies the present value of lifetime earnings losses substantially exceeds the per-student savings — particularly for the subgroups where effects are concentrated. I will be at the April 29 meeting at 6:00 PM at the Kenwood Learning Commons. I hope the board will act to keep all five 2nd-grade sections. Sincerely, [Your name] [Your address]
03 · Bring a Printed Brief
Print this page as a PDF
The page has a print stylesheet that produces a clean serif brief. Press ⌘ P (Mac) or Ctrl P (Windows), choose Save as PDF, and bring a few copies. Board members are more likely to read a document in their hands than one sent in advance.
04 · Forward to a Neighbor
Share this page
The argument only works if the seats are filled on April 29. Pick a network below for one-click sharing — or copy the pre-written message and paste it into a text or email.
Montgomery Elementary is eliminating a 2nd-grade position for next year. The research on K–3 class size is unusually clear — here's a short brief. Next chance to push back is Wed Apr 29, 6 PM, Kenwood Learning Commons. https://keepourteachers.org
05 · File a Public-Records Request
Ask for the numbers the district hasn't posted
Sycamore's Five-Year Forecast operates at the district level. Per-building allocations — including what Montgomery Elementary actually receives — are not publicly posted. Under Ohio's Public Records Act (Ohio Revised Code § 149.43), any Ohio resident can request them. Even if the request is denied or incomplete, the absence itself becomes a question for the board: why isn't this public? Treasurer/CFO Brody Burson is the custodian.

Who to reach

The Sycamore Community Schools Board of Education is five elected members. Emails and one-line context below — a personal note to an individual member, written in your own voice, is worth more than ten form emails to the group address.

All five at once Best when you can't tailor to each member
President
Victor Harris
Retired Sycamore Jr. High social studies teacher, 33 years in the district. Now teaches intervention at Seven Hills. Elected Nov 2023 · term ends 2027.
Vice President
Dr. Adrienne James
Retired Sycamore Superintendent. 33 years in the district as teacher, administrator, and Superintendent. Educational consultant. Elected Nov 2023 · term ends 2027.
Member
Paul Balent
Global Sales Director, Nalco Water. Sycamore parent (two children). Appointed May 2015, elected Nov 2015 · term ends 2029.
Member
Sara Bitter
Attorney at the Children's Law Center. Sycamore parent (two children). Elected Nov 2021 · term ends 2029.
Member
Will Gosnell
Term ends 2029. Full biography not yet posted on the district site.

Day of the meeting

If this is your first board meeting, these are the practical things parents wish they'd known:

  • Arrive by 5:45 Find Brody Burson in the entryway — he keeps the public-comment sign-up sheet on-site. Meeting starts at 6:00 PM sharp. Seats fill.
  • Bring the brief Print this page (⌘ P / Ctrl P → Save as PDF) and bring a few copies. Board members are more likely to read a document in their hands than one sent in advance.
  • Don't rehearse Read from notes. The 90-second script in §08 works as-is. You're not being graded — specificity matters more than polish.
  • After you speak Board members typically don't respond directly during public comment. They listen and your comment is entered into the record. Applause from the audience is normal.
  • You can leave early Non-agenda public comment is at the start. Speak, sit down, listen as long as you like — or go. Being present at the start is what matters.

How to speak at the meeting

Sycamore's public-participation rules are specific. The short version:

  • Who can speak Residents, parents or guardians of Sycamore students, alumni, district employees, district business owners, and elected officials with jurisdiction over the district.
  • Non-agenda items 3 minutes per speaker, taken at the beginning of each regular meeting.
  • Agenda items Speak when that item is being discussed — after the motion and second, before the vote.
  • Total cap 30 minutes total for public comment per meeting. Seats fill — arrive early.
  • To sign up Email Treasurer/CFO Brody Burson at in advance, or complete the sign-up form at the meeting before it begins.
Can't attend in person

The meeting is live-streamed on Zoom. Meeting ID 937 6301 0127, passcode 654692. Full agendas are posted in advance at BoardDocs.

What this argument means for November 2026

A November 3, 2026 levy is already on Sycamore's calendar (Forecast slide 19). It was scheduled before this brief existed and will appear on the ballot regardless of how the April 29 meeting ends. Separate question from April 29 — but one worth naming: how the board handles this cut should inform how Sycamore votes in seven months.

The timeline

Three things to watch on April 29

Whether the position is kept. A board that intervenes — directing the administration to maintain five 2nd-grade sections — signals willingness to listen. A board that doesn't is signaling that budget balancing overrides research-backed educational judgment, at the grade band with the strongest evidence base.
How the three §07 questions are answered. The $15.96M capital question, the instructional-coaches question, the levy-timing question. Full or evasive answers matter.
Whether the board commits to publishing per-school budget data. Transparency about where the money actually goes is foundational to any "trust us with more" levy pitch.

What to do with this

Every Sycamore voter weighs these themselves. Parents showing up on April 29 should know their attendance isn't a one-shot. The board knows the levy is coming. How they respond to public comment at the April 29 meeting is how they're signaling what the next six months will look like.

The question to leave with the board
Which second graders does the board believe a class of 25 won't hurt — and what's the evidence?